Too soon to be sure
Relatives react at Pulkovo international airport outside Saint
Petersburg after a Russian plane with 224 people on board crashed in a
mountainous part of Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula on Saturday. — AFP
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is quite right. It is far too
early to know what caused the Russian Metrojet airliner to fall out of
the sky on Saturday just 23 minutes after it left the Sharm El-Sheikh
resort en route for St Petersburg with 224 passengers and crew on board.
The two black box flight recorders are only now being examined, yet
the Metrojet management have felt themselves able to deny that there had
been any problem with the aircraft. There must, said the carrier’s
operations’ manager, have been some external cause for the crash.
The Putin Kremlin, like Sisi, is counseling against rushing to
conclusions. Terrorists linked to Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) have
claimed that they were responsible for downing the airliner. They did
not say how this had been achieved. Security analysts have opined that
it is not thought the terrorists operating in the Sinai have rockets
able to reach aircraft at some 10,000 meters. If it was a terror attack,
it is more likely that it was an explosive device that was somehow
taken or put on board the plane. Only a thorough examination of the
wreckage together with evidence from the flight recorders will enable
investigators to piece together – quite literally in the case of the
remains of the airframe – exactly what happened.
It will not have been lost on more thoughtful Russians that it took
international investigators fully 14 months to issue a definitive report
into the destruction in mid-air of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over
Ukraine in July 2014. That investigation concluded that, without doubt,
the airliner had been hit by a Russian-built Buk missile. Though there
is strong evidence to suggest that the missile was fired from the
pro-Moscow rebel territory around Donetsk, it was not part of the
enquiry’s brief to apportion blame. The general belief is that the Buk
was targeting a Ukrainian transport plane being used for surveillance.
The notion that the Metrojet destruction was an act of terrorism is
strengthened by Russia’s military intervention in Syria to save the
Assad regime. Yet although Putin’s warplanes have targeted Daesh
positions, most recently Monday’s airstrike on Palmyra, the greatest
part of Moscow’s assault has been focused on the Free Syrian Army, who
themselves are struggling against Daesh fanatics.
Sisi has described the terrorist claim that they destroyed the
Russian aircraft, as “propaganda”. This, however, is to overlook the
reality that propaganda, at which Daesh has proved itself hideously
adept, is not necessarily a lie. If a bomb was smuggled on board the
doomed plane, there are serious questions to be answered by Egyptian
security. With tourist numbers to its magnificent archaeological
heritage along the Nile badly hit by terrorist violence, the purely
vacation resorts surrounding Sharm El-Sheikh on the tip of the Sinai
peninsula have been the one remaining source of tourist dollars.
This is a tragedy that is still very far from being understood. It
is obvious why the Russian carrier should be seeking to deny any
responsibility – obvious but not wise. It seems equally clear that
Daesh’s claims of responsibility, even if they are opportunist nonsense,
should not be ignored. The brutal truth is that even if they did not
destroy this aircraft, they would have done so if they could. The lesson
then is that everyone concerned, including other international airlines
servicing the Egyptian Sinai resorts must redouble their security.
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